As Joe Biden’s presidency draws to a close, the reviews are being written — what will become the first draft of history.
And the reviews from most Americans are not good.
Surveys show they have mixed views on his four years at the pinnacle of power, the culmination of a career in public service that spans more than five decades.
Gallup found 54% of U.S. adults think Biden will be remembered as a below average or poor president; 19% say he’ll be remembered as outstanding or above average and 26% think he will be viewed as average.
Historians, though, say it will take years to fully assess Biden’s legacy and his lasting imprint on American politics. Several spoke to ABC News to offer a preliminary take on how they regard his presidency as he prepares to make his exit.
COVID recovery and legislative wins
“I think it is likely Joe Biden’s legacy will be assessed far more generously than some would have it today,” said Ellen Fitzpatrick, professor of history at the University of New Hampshire.
“His quick action upon taking office to address the COVID-19 pandemic, including expediting vaccinations and steering the American Rescue Plan to passage, contributed to a ‘first 100 days’ more robust in achievement than perhaps any president since FDR,” Fitzpatrick added.
The American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion relief bill that provided stimulus checks directly to Americans, support for state and local governments and billions of dollars in vaccine distribution, was signed just months after he took office. By mid-May 2021, his administration announced 250 million vaccines had been administered.
“That activism continued with successes in expanding federal investment in clean energy and improved infrastructure, new job creation, efforts to address climate change, curb health care costs and expand insurance coverage among many initiatives,” Fitzpatrick said.
By the end of his second year in office, he’d also signed the Inflation Reduction Act, a massive climate, health and tax law; the CHIPS Act, a multibillion-dollar law to boost domestic computer chip manufacturing; the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the first major gun safety bill in decades; and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which provides funding to rebuild the country’s bridges, roads and public transportation.
But some economists question how much the big-ticket bills contributed to inflation, which reached a 40-year high during his time in office though has since cooled.
“He spent a lot of money, but didn’t really change the authorities of government and change the structure of government,” said Tevi Troy, a senior fellow at the Ronald Reagan Institute. “I don’t think people are gonna look at the inflation Reduction Act, which everybody acknowledged was misnamed, the same way that we look at the Great Society legislation that Lyndon B. Johnson passed.”
Plus, Americans may not feel the full impact of Biden’s signature policies — such as infrastructure improvements or drug-pricing reforms — for years to come.
“They experienced all the disruptions without any of the payoff,” said Russell Riley, the co-chair of the Miller Center’s Presidential Oral History Program. “And what I think those who are supporters of Biden will count on is that in the long scope of history, once these projects stop being ongoing ventures with all the headaches associated with it and you see the good that came out of it, that his image will be rehabilitated some.”
Foreign policy footprint
“The things that I think will probably stand up as positives were a return to alliances and the importance of engaging in positive relationships with nations around the globe,” said presidential historian Lindsay Chervinsky. “That was something that both our allies really want and is in America’s best interest.”
Biden made support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion a key issue, framing it as a battle for democracy against authoritarianism. He made a surprise visit to wartime Kyiv to stand alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a year of war.
In the Middle East, Biden tried to balance unwavering support for Israel after Hamas’ terror attack in Oct. 2023 while also pushing for humanitarian assistance for Palestinians inside Gaza. He faced anger from all sides as the conflict unfolded, but managed to secure a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas at the very end of his presidency.
Biden has also touted ending America’s longest war by removing remaining troops in Afghanistan. But the chaos that accompanied the withdrawal, including the deaths of 13 American service members, cast a pall over his presidency.
“On the flip side, the way in which the departure from Afghanistan unfolded — not so much the departure itself but the way it was conducted and that administration’s inability to take responsibility for that — I think really annoyed a lot of people and continued to color their perspective of the administration,” Chervinsky said.
His decision to run for reelection — and later drop out
Biden announced he was running for reelection in April 2023. At the time, he was 80 years old.
There was no competitive Democratic primary and he was on a glide path to become the party’s nominee until his June 2024 debate performance against Donald Trump.
The poor showing stoked concern among Democrats about Biden’s age and ability to campaign. He fought off the growing panic for weeks, but ultimately withdrew from the campaign on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place.
“He has sort of two presidencies: before the debate and then after the debate,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston and co-creator of the Presidential Greatness Project.
Riley said he believed this chapter of Biden’s presidency could overshadow his accomplishments.
“I think this is where the light of history will probably be especially harsh, particularly for those who believe that the disruptions of Trumpism are historically significant and adversely impact our constitutional system,” he added.
Biden has maintained a belief that he could have beaten Trump had he stayed in the race. He said he decided to drop out to help unify the Democratic Party.
“The tragic irony of Joe Biden is that he wanted to be president his whole life, certainly his whole Senate career, and when he finally got it, he was too old for the job,” said Troy.
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